ITC F.I. AM Meeting: Big supply today- Bunds and new US 10yr
ITC Fixed Income Morning Meeting: Buxl to open around 133.07, Bunds at 142.34, Bobls at 126.97, Schatz at 110.84, Gilts at 120.75 (Ref 133.20 TY)
- UST NY Recap: Treasuries sold off on Tuesday as 5y, 10y and 30y yields rose by 5bps, 5.7bps and 6bps, respectively. Heading into NY we heard talk of very good foreign RM seller behind some sharp downside in USTs, as the belly led the move lower. We heard other two-way flows across the curve with FM selling 10s (on the curve) while RM were light but better buyers. We heard one US name was a good seller of France, which appeared to help Bunds lower as Peripherals bounced too, led by long-end as LM and dealer flow fuelled the move. We heard some decent corporate rate lock selling behind another gap lower, seen across 5y, 10y and 30y which kept swaps spreads under pressure pressure. The belly benefitted from a small bid into the Fed Op (as the sub/cover fell to levels last seen in April). The 3y auction was met with soft demand as TY saw some good selling pressure on the follow from FM, both outright and as part of steep'ners. Issuance weighed on the long-end as Time Warner priced a $1.25bn 30y deal, there was a 5k block buy in TY (14:47EDT) - thought to be a HF closing and we heard some CTAs come in at the close to sell bonds, setting new shorts.
- US 3yr Auction results: Soft auction, b/c came in-line at 3.51x (vs. 3.52x last four avg) and the auction tails by 0.8bps (vs. 0.1bps tail, last four avg). Indirects took down 29.70% vs. 3m avg. 33.20% while directs were allotted 8.40% vs. 3m avg. 10.30%
- US Fed Ops: the Fed is scheduled to purchase $1.5-2.0bn in the 20-30y sector
- US 10yr Auctions: the Treasury is scheduled to auction $24bn in 10s. The strong performance of the 10y auctions is evident from the fact that none of the previous seven auctions has tailed. Final demand has strengthened recently. Dealers will closely watch today's auction after the large direct bid in last month's 10yr auction caused it to stop 4.4bps short
- USTs in Tokyo: some early buying/REC flows has kept us near the highs all session. Bund supply and 10yr US auction tonight may keep upside in check. 30yr supply tomorrow
- European Fixed Income: Bunds to open around 142.34 (Ref 133.20 TY). Bund supply at 10.30BST.
- Supply: At 10:30BST, Germany will tap the 10y 1.75% 07/22 Bund for €4.0bn (equivalent to 33k Bund futures). Desks expect a good auction given the recent cheapening seen in Germany
- Euribor & OTC: At 10:00BST, the ECB will announce its 7-day USD allotment which sees $7.0bn maturing.
- Gilts: At 14:45BST, the BoE will be buying in the 7-15y bucket for £1.0bn. The previous bid/cover came in at 3.51x, with the bank paying a discount of 8-10p.
- Economic Releases: At 07:00BST, Germany will release the June Current account and Trade Balance data which are expected to come in at €11.9 (vs. €9.0 previously) and €14.6 (vs. €15.3 previously) respectively. Then, at 11:00BST Germany will published the June Industrial Production with analysts forecasting -0.8% m/m (vs. 1.6% previously) following the recent decline of the industrial output.
- Speakers/Other Events: At 10:30BST, the BoE will release the Quarterly Inflation Report. CPI has undershot the BoE's forecasts since the last quarterly inflation report in May, following the fall in commodity prices and especially oil, and analysts expect the BoE to revise lower its forecasts for inflation and GDP. But their focus will be on the central projection and balance of risks to inflation in the medium term, which they expect to be broadly balanced, noting that the BoE doesn't include risks of extreme events in the Euro Area. Analysts note that the downside surprise in GDP growth, weaker overseas activity, increasing tensions in the Euro Area and lower oil prices will be counterbalanced to some extent by the recent loosening of monetary policy and credit easing measures. However, Analysts will be looking for signs that risks to inflation are to the downside, with the assumption that this will increase the probability of further stimulus in November. Analysts note that one uncertainty over the medium term forecasts will be how much weight they put on the effect of the Funding for Lending Scheme, where they believe the BoE will want to avoid appearing too optimistic over its effect although a boost will still be factored in.
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