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Latin America
Robin Mesch Outlook on 10-Year T-Notes: May 2012
10-YEAR T-NOTES
For months we’ve been a patient but relentless seller in this market. Due to the strength of this uptrend, our strategy has been to sell high at the top of value, but results have been mixed. The good news is that we were able to buy time in the trade to determine the merits of our strategy. The bad news is that it looks like we’re wrong. The continued display of poor quality distributions on the part of the Bears gives rise to our shift in strategy and no longer warrants our continued fixation on selling again this month. What has us concerned for Bears is the creation of a Bell Curve against the old price too high of 132-00. The conversion of the old price too high into fair value is a classic first step a market undergoes before a trend resumption. While we’re not yet fully prepared to buy high this month, recent trading activity warrants getting sidelined from our sales until more market information is available. It would take a close this month back below 131-02 for us to entertain the sell side once again.
The charts included in this report are Price Usage charts which depict the usage of a given price over time. The vertical left axis represents price, while the horizontal axis represents time. Price Usage charts display where the market has ‘used’ price, thus accepting - or rejecting - value. The result of this market auction process are Bell Curve shaped composite Profiles, which indicate phases of development and create a top and bottom of perceived value in the market.
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*Disclaimer: The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
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