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March natural gas held the 50% retracement of the move down from $2.844 to $2.34 on a closing basis when prices rose to $2.618 on last week. The technicals indicate another test of key support at $2.34 is expected. A close below this would open the way for a new low, however, just less even that $2.34 will hold and more range bound trading will ensue.
First resistance is $2.53 and a move above this early tomorrow before $2.34 is met would call for another upward oscillation toward $2.65.
Retracements
The 62% retracement from $2.844 to $2.34 is near $2.65. A close over this would call for $2.79, the 89% retracement and last level protecting the $2.844 swing high.
NGH12 Retracements to $2.34
Candlestick Review
The daily candlesticks show a bearish engulfing line Wednesday, February 15. This is negative and indicates the move down should continue tomorrow. Support at $2.34 is in line with the open of January 23, so a close below this would call for the move down to continue to a new contract low.
NGH12 Daily Candlesticks
Review of Momentum Status
Bearish divergences at the $2.618 swing high on the $0.05 Kase Bar chart indicate the current move down will likely extend. There was a small bullish KasePO divergence yesterday, but it was nearly taken out today. Otherwise, there are no indications from the momentum indicators applied to this chart that the decline will stall.
NGH12 Intraday Momentum
Kase Comments has been provided to you by Kase and Company, Inc. CTA. Written by Dean Rogers AP and edited by Cynthia Kase, CMT, MFTA. See www.kaseco.com or contact Dean Rogers at 505-237-1600 for further information or a free trial of Kase’s weekly technical forecast.
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