DTN Midday Grain Comments 02/19 11:50
Grains Mixed at Midday
Soybeans surge higher while corn and wheat slip.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow up 50. The interest
rate products are flat. The dollar index is 14 lower. Energies are lower with
crude down $0.10. Livestock trade is sharply lower. Precious metals are lower
with gold off $6.
Corn trade is 4 to 7 lower at midday with pressure noted from the soft wheat
trade and some selling corn versus buying bean activity. The nearby March chart
resistance is $7.00, with $7.05 above it, and support at $6.90 then $6.85.
Weather as an aggregate is a non-issue for corn at the moment, although some
questions are starting to arise from the second crop in Brazil. Ethanol margins
are holding in the near term, basis remains bid very strong. Farmer movement
has slowed sharply with the price break, and the impending winter storm will
likely slow things some more this week. Export inspections were disappointing
at 9.05 million bushels, so limited suppritve news other than we have avoided
slipping down to or below the lows printed last week.
Soybean trade is 36 to 40 higher at midday, with meal $14 to $15 higher, and
oil 60 to 70 points higher. The market viewed the rains in South America as
disappointing over the long weekend, although there was good coverage in many
areas. There was some old crop export announcements that helped give beans a
boost, and some buying beans versus selling corn. Some of that spread action
was exiting. Nearby soybeans will have resistance in the $14.50 area, which we
are above at midday. A close above here would set up the market for another
test of the $15.00 area. Support will remain at $14.32 and $14.20 for now.
Export inspections were 40 million bushels, which keeps things very strong in
the near term. South American harvest is beginning to pick up the pace, and
should lead to bigger shipments out of South America despite backlogs soon.
Wheat trade is 13 to 15 lower across the three exchanges at midday. The
weakness is noted as chart selling and expectations of improved weather. Also
Indian feed wheat sales brought in some long liquidation today. Wheat export
business is expected to increase in the near term, with China, Brazil, and the
Middle East more active. The impending winter storm will bring some moisture
and snow cover to the Hard Red Wheat belt, easing concerns a bit in the near
term. March Chicago wheat has near term resistance at $7.45 and $7.60 with
support at $7.20. Wheat export shipments were stronger than expected at 30
million bushels. This was positive, but at midday we are still around the daily
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered Trading Adviser
Copyright 2013 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.
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