DTN Midday Grain Comments 02/04 11:45
Soybeans Higher at Midday
Soybeans are solidly higher, with corn and wheat flat.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are lower with the Dow down 125. The interest
rate products are lower. The dollar index is 40 higher. Energies are lower with
crude off $1.30. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are mixed with gold
Corn trade is narrowly mixed at midday, giving back early gains. South
America remains dry and warm in most corn-growing areas in the near term, with
corn catching support from strength in soybeans. Outside markets are softer
this morning. Nearby support is at $7.35, with resistance at $7.46 and $7.50 in
the near term. Export inspections were low at 5.4 million bushels, and ethanol
margins are softer this morning. Basis has remained fairly sideways, and the
spreads have softened a bit the last few days.
Soybean trade is 13 to 16 higher at midday, with meal up $6 to $7, and oil
up 10 to 20 points. Support on the March contract is at $14.57, and $14.52. The
next major March resistance level is $15.01, which is the December 17th high.
South American weather is expected to be dry in the South this week, with a
storm system at the start of next week, while the Northern growing areas
continue to struggle with excess moisture. Crush margins have remained solid
going into the second half of the year. Export inspections were strong at 53.4
million bushels keeping shipments ahead of the expected pace. China bought a
cargo of old and new crop today.
Wheat is flat to 3 lower across the three exchanges with pending rain
limiting the ability of wheat to rally. March Chicago has resistance at $7.70
and $7.75. The forecasts generally look a little better for parts of the HRW
belt, with rains forecasted this weekend. World wheat prices remain well
supported, and no other origins were competitive with the U.S. on the Egyptian
tender for 60,000 metric tons. Longer-term concerns about poor planting in
Australia are starting to kick up. Talk of India potentially coming in as an
exporter will restrain gains. Export inspections were a little low at 15
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered Trading Adviser
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