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Market Commentary
Pre-Session Gold Market Report

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Morning Gold Market Report for 11/6/2009

Compiled 11/06/09 6:00 AM (CT)

Statistics: London Gold Fix $1,095.00 +$7.00 LME Copper stks 385,575 tons +5,775 tons

GOLD MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: (6:00 AM CST) Early in the Friday morning trade, December gold futures were sitting roughly $7 to $8 an ounce above the prior record close and while some bulls might be emboldened by the uncertainty of worse than expected US readings this morning, a large portion of the bull camp might be discouraged if the US numbers don't provide some sign that the US economy is trying to recover. With the action in the Dollar this week less definitive and the gold market seemingly drifting away from an ultra tight correlation with the Dollar action, it is possible that the gold trade will be looking to the equity market reaction to the numbers this morning for its guidance after the report is released. Surprisingly the gold market doesn't seem to be negatively influenced by talk out of China overnight that the Chinese central bank might not need to purchase more gold in the near term but that could simply be a function of the high relative price of gold, as opposed to long term Chinese central bank gold needs. The bulls feel confident because of the recent trend highlights a market that has plowed through some negatives recently, while the bear camp feels that inflation probably won't take hold until after the US economy is thought to be growing steadily.

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: (6:00 AM CST) Apparently the US gold trade isn't tracking that tightly with the Indian gold market action overnight, as Indian gold prices showed minor weakness. Perhaps some traders were leveling positions ahead of the potentially violent US Non farm payroll report window or perhaps the proximity to the recent historic highs simply prompted some longs into a profit taking stance. While international equity prices overnight were largely mixed, the scheduled data flow overnight was mostly up beat and that probably favored the precious metals bulls. The stock markets this week, seem to have factored in a bit of a favorable US jobs reading and some traders are suggesting that a number of physical commodity markets like gold and silver, have also partially factored in readings that show a narrowing of the US job loss pace. The bear camp might suggest that historic highs in gold prices are suspect, in the face of an ongoing rise in the US unemployment rate and therefore the numbers this morning look to bring about some temporary fireworks.

The daily commentaries provide a recap of each commodity's traded price activity, an analysis of the factors that influenced price activity, a recap of any reports released that day, and a look ahead at the next day's schedule. CME Group provides market commentaries for corn, wheat, soybeans, gold and silver.

The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.