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 November 19, 2009 7:19am CST

European FX Futures for the November 20 Opening Call

The foreign currency futures were mixed in Asia, with the European and the commodity currencies digging further down and the yen struggling up. The Asia/Pacific stock markets headed down, in line with the US markets.

I was expecting the European and the commodity currencies to recover for at least half a day, and the yen to edge lower, but this outlook has yet to pan out. My medium-term outlook for the foreign currency futures is bullish.

My model is short all the European and the commodity currencies and long yen. My model is long the DJIA and S&P500.

Look for updates on my model’s positions on Twitter: They are free – for now. Then, you will have to subscribe to get the model turns in advance.

Good luck!

Cornelius
www.LucaFXTA.com


Overnight:
   
•    Australia: No data
•    Japan: No data    


Today’s economic calendar:

•    Germany: Producer prices for October           
•    Italy: Industrial orders for September

December Euro Futures
Luca Model: Short since November 19


 

The December euro remained under pressure in the Far East after falling on Thursday, but was still stuck in Tuesday’s range. Following this early weakness, the euro should recover for at least half a day. The medium-term outlook remains bullish, even though the euro is trading in a triangle.

Initial support is seen at 1.4879 from the 21-day moving average. The next level is 1.4806. Further support is at 1.4737 from the 55-day moving average.  

Immediate resistance is at 1.4927. The next level is 1.5015. The top of the uptrend is 1.5062. Distant resistance is pegged at 1.5135.


INDICATORS
 
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bullish (overbought)


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

DecemberJapanese Yen Futures

Luca Model: Long since November 13

The December yen edged further up in Asia after advancing on Thursday. It should attempt to correct lower before the next rally. The medium-term outlook remains bullish.

The top of the upmove is at 112.71. A pivot high is perched at 113.68.

Initial support is at 112.09. The next level is 111.69. The 21-day moving average supports at 111.25 and the 55-day moving average at a distant 110.19.   


INDICATORS
 
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

December British Pound Futures 

Luca Model: Short since November 19

The overbought December pound edged marginally lower in the Far East after falling on Thursday. The bullish medium-term outlook is in danger. Following this early decline, the pound should try to recover for half a day before declining further.    
 
The 21-day moving average supports at 1.6571.  The next support is at 1.6521.
 
Initial resistance is 1.6688. This is followed by 1.6744 and 1.6811. The top of the upmove is at 1.6876.  
 

INDICATORS
 
Fast stochastics: Bearish (oversold)
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bullish (overbought)

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

December Swiss Franc Futures 

Luca Model: Short since November 17

The December Swiss franc slipped modestly in the Far East after falling on Thursday and remains stuck an inside range. Following this additional decline, the short-term outlook is slightly bullish for half a day. The medium-term outlook remains bullish.

Initial support is at .9848 from the 21-day moving average. The next levels are .9796 and .9738. A pivot low is at .9675.     

Immediate resistance is .9906. The high of the uptrend is .9979.     


INDICATORS
 
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bullish


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

 
December Canadian Dollar Futures

Luca Model: Short since November 19

 

The December Canadian dollar slipped in an inside range in Asia after falling on Thursday. In the short term, the loonie should bottom and then recover for at least half a day.

Initial support is at .9381 from the 55-day moving average. The next level is .9295. A pivot low is at .9212.  

The 21-day moving average now resists at .9449. Further resistance is at .9505. Above .9599, strong resistance is at .9637.  


INDICATORS
 
Fast stochastics: Bearish (oversold)
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
 

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish?
LONG-TERM: Bullish

 
December Australian Dollar Futures

Luca Model: Short since November 19


        

The December Australian dollar slipped in an inside range in the Far East after falling on Thursday. It should put in a bottom soon and then bounce for half a day before the next move down. The medium-term outlook is bullish.

Strong support is seen at .9073. A pivot low is at .8882.

The 21-day moving average is resisting at .9157. The next resistance is pegged at .9196. Further resistance lies at .9283. The high of the uptrend is .9382. 


INDICATORS
  
Fast stochastics: Bearish (bearish divergence)
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bullish (overbought) 

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

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