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 November 5, 2009 7:19am CST

European FX Futures for the November 6 Opening Call

The foreign currency futures consolidated in the Far East after making little progress on Thursday ahead of the US non-farm payrolls due at 8:30 EST. The interesting news came out of Australia: the Reserve Bank of Australia boosted its forecasts for economic growth for 2010 and indicated more interest rate increases are coming. The US stock markets closed sharply higher, but the Asia/Pacific stock markets are down. Oil and gold are fractionally higher.

In the short term, the European and the commodity currencies should trade first up and then down. The yen should trade the opposite way.

My medium-term outlook for the European and the commodity currencies is now sideways. My medium-term outlook for the yen remains bullish.

My model is now long all the foreign currency futures except Aussie.

Look for updates on my model’s positions on Twitter: They are free – for now. Then, you will have to subscribe to get the model turns in advance.

Good luck!

Cornelius
www.LucaFXTA.com


Overnight:
   
•    US: Labor productivity increased by much more than expected 9.5% in the third quarter following a revised 6.9% increase in the second quarter (from the 6.6% growth originally reported).
•    US: The number of US workers filing new claims for jobless insurance fell 20,000 to a seasonally adjusted 512,000 in the week ended October 31, the lowest since early January, from the standard upwardly revised 532,000 (previously reported 530,000).
•    Canada: Building permits slowed to +1.6% in September from 7.38% in August.
•    Canada: The Ivey Purchasing Managers Index fell to 61.2 in October from 61.7 in September.
•    Australia: In its quarterly Monetary Policy Statement, the Reserve Bank of Australia boosted its forecasts for economic growth for the coming year and indicated more interest rate increases are coming. It expanded its GDP forecast to 1.75% to the end of calendar year 2009 from 0.5% growth.    
•    Japan: Foreigners purchased about 46.5 billion yen more in Japan stocks than they sold for the week of October 25 to the 31st. It was the 4th straight week for foreigners as net buyers of Japanese stocks. Foreign residents were net sellers of Japan bonds and notes for the week, having sold 346.8 billion yen more than they bought. It was the 4th straight week for foreigners as net sellers.

 

Today’s economic calendar:

•    Germany: Factory Goods Orders for September
•    France: Trade Balance for September
•    Switzerland: Unemployment Rate for October
•    UK: PPI Input/Output for October

 

 

 

 

December Euro Futures
Luca Model: Long since November 4 (Reversing short since October 26)


 

 

The December euro was basically flat in the Far East after closing marginally lower on Thursday. Will the yo-yo markets stretch for an eighth day? The euro should trade first up and then down. My medium-term outlook is now sideways but the MACD continues to show bearish divergence.

The 21-day moving average supports at 1.4814. Wednesday’s low is 1.4700. The 55-day moving average supports at 1.4656.  

Thursday’s high is 1.4916. The next level is 1.4967. The top of the uptrend is 1.5062.  


INDICATORS
 
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bearish – bearish divergence
Ichimoku: Bullish


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Bearish early, then bullish  
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways  
LONG-TERM: Bullish

DecemberJapanese Yen Futures

Luca Model: Short since November 4

The December yen edged higher in Asia after closing little changed on Thursday. My model is still short – if barely. The yen should first trade higher and then attempt another decline, but Wednesday’s low should hold. The medium-term outlook is bullish.

Strong resistance is at 111.09 from a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Monday’s high is 111.83. The top of the upmove is 113.68.

The 21-day moving average is at 110.23. The 55-day moving average supports at 109.47. A pivot low follows at 108.12.   


INDICATORS
 
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Bullish early, then slightly bearish  
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

December British Pound Futures 

Luca Model: Long since November 4

The December pound marked time in an inside range in the Far East after closing marginally lower on Thursday. My model is long. The pound should trade lower early and then higher. The medium-term outlook is bearish.
 
Immediate support is at 1.6521. The next level is 1.6456. The 21-day moving average supports at 1.6384 and the 55-day moving average at a distant 1.6306.  
 
Initial resistance is at 1.6625. The next cap is at 1.6689. Further resistance is at 1.6742.  


INDICATORS
 
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Bearish early, then bullish  
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways  
LONG-TERM: Bullish

December Swiss Franc Futures 

Luca Model: Long since November 4 (Reversing short since October 23)

The December Swiss franc was flat in Asia after ending with small losses on Thursday. The short-term outlook is bearish early and then bullish. Meanwhile, the medium-term outlook is sideways.    

The 21-day moving average supports at .9800. Further support is at .9737. The 55-day moving average supports at .9687. Distant support is at .9590.   

Immediate resistance is at .9896. The high of the uptrend is .9971.  


INDICATORS
 
Fast stochastics: Bullish  
MACD: Sideways  
Ichimoku: Bullish

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Bearish early, then bullish  
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways  
LONG-TERM: Bullish

 
December Canadian Dollar Futures

Luca Model: Long since November 4

 

The December Canadian dollar marked time in Asia after slipping in an inside range on Thursday. The loonie should first decline and then see some strength later today. The medium-term outlook is still bearish.  

Initial support is at .9339 from the 55-day moving average. Monday’s low is .9212.  

The 21-day moving average resists at .9413. Further resistance is at .9460. Distant resistance is at .9539.  


INDICATORS
 
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Bearish early, then bullish  
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways  
LONG-TERM: Bullish

 
December Australian Dollar Futures

Luca Model: Short since October 23

        

The December Australian dollar edged higher in the Far East after ending with small losses in an inside range on Thursday. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is still short. The Aussie should first edge lower and then attempt to advance.

The 21-day moving average is supporting at .9024.  A pivot low is at .8822. 

Immediate resistance is at .9111. Good resistance is at .9170. The top of the uptrend is at .9282. 


INDICATORS
  
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bearish   
Ichimoku: Bullish (overbought) 

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Bearish early, then bullish 
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways 
LONG-TERM: Bullish

 

 

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