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November 5, 2009 7:20am CST

Asia FX FUTURES For the November 6 Open Call

The foreign currency futures made little progress on Thursday, ending mostly with modest losses, as the attention focused on the US non-farm payrolls due at 8:30 EST. The US stock markets closed sharply higher, oil fell, while gold marched stubbornly higher.

In the short term, the European and the commodity currencies should trade first up and then down. The yen should trade the opposite way.

My medium-term outlook for the European and the commodity currencies is now sideways. My medium-term outlook for the yen remains bullish.

My model is now long all the foreign currency futures except Aussie.

Look for updates on my model’s positions on Twitter: They are free – for now. Then, you will have to subscribe to get the model turns in advance.

Good luck!

Cornelius
www.LucaFXTA.com


Overnight:
   
•    US: Labor productivity increased by much more than expected 9.5% in the third quarter following a revised 6.9% increase in the second quarter (from the 6.6% growth originally reported).
•    US: The number of US workers filing new claims for jobless insurance fell 20,000 to a seasonally adjusted 512,000 in the week ended October 31, the lowest since early January, from the standard upwardly revised 532,000 (previously reported 530,000).
•    Canada: Building permits slowed to +1.6% in September from 7.38% in August.
•    Canada: The Ivey Purchasing Managers Index fell to 61.2 in October from 61.7 in September.
 

Today’s economic calendar:

•    Australia: AiG Performance of Construction Index for October    
•    Japan: Foreigners buying Japanese bonds for October

December Euro

Luca Model: Long since November 4 (Reversing short since October 26)

The December euro encountered choppy trading on Thursday, closing marginally lower after falling from a new high for the week. So, the yo-yo markets stretched for a seventh day. The euro should trade first up and then down. My medium-term outlook is now sideways but the MACD continues to show bearish divergence.

The 21-day moving average supports at 1.4809. Wednesday’s low is 1.4700. The 55-day moving average supports at 1.4649.  

Thursday’s high is 1.4916. The next level is 1.4967. The top of the uptrend is 1.5062.  


INDICATORS
 
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bearish – bearish divergence
Ichimoku: Bullish


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Bearish early, then bullish  
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways  
LONG-TERM: Bullish

  
December Japanese Yen

Luca Model:  Short since November 4

The December yen closed little changed on Thursday. My model is still short – if barely. The yen should first trade higher and then attempt another decline, but Wednesday’s low should hold. The medium-term outlook is bullish.

The 21-day moving average is at 110.22. Strong resistance is at 111.09 from a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Monday’s high is 111.83. The top of the upmove is 113.68.

The 55-day moving average supports at 109.43. A pivot low follows at 108.12.   


INDICATORS
 
Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Bullish early, then slightly bearish  
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

December British Pound

Luca Model: Long since November 4

 

The December pound fell closed marginally lower after slipping from a near 2-week high. My model is long. The pound should trade lower early and then higher. The medium-term outlook is bearish.
 
Immediate support is at 1.6521. The next level is 1.6456. The 21-day moving average supports at 1.6364 and the 55-day moving average at a distant 1.6296.  
 
Initial resistance is at 1.6625. The next cap is at 1.6689. Further resistance is at 1.6742.  


INDICATORS
 
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Sideways  
Ichimoku: Sideways

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Bearish early, then bullish  
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways  
LONG-TERM: Bullish

 
December Swiss Franc

Luca Model: Long since November 4 (Reversing short since October 23)

The December Swiss franc ended with mild losses on Thursday after surging on Wednesday. This means that the pattern of alternating up and down day hit seven days. The short-term outlook is bearish early and then bullish. Meanwhile, the medium-term outlook is sideways.    

The 21-day moving average supports at .9797. Further support is at .9737. The 55-day moving average supports at .9682. Distant support is at .9590.   

Immediate resistance is at .9896. The high of the uptrend is .9971.  


INDICATORS
 
Fast stochastics: Bullish  
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bullish

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Bearish early, then bullish  
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways  
LONG-TERM: Bullish

December Canadian Dollar

Luca Model: Long since November 4

The December Canadian dollar slipped in an inside range. The loonie should first decline and then see some strength later today. The medium-term outlook is still bearish.  

Initial support is at .9337 from the 55-day moving average. Monday’s low is .9212.  

The 21-day moving average resists at .9416. Further resistance is at .9460. Distant resistance is at .9539.  


INDICATORS
 
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Bearish early, then bullish  
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways  
LONG-TERM: Bullish

December Australian Dollar 

Luca Model : Short since October 23

 

The December Australian dollar ended with small losses in an inside range. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is still short. The Aussie should first edge lower and then attempt to advance.

The 21-day moving average is supporting at .9017.  A pivot low is at .8822.  

Immediate resistance is at .9111. Good resistance is at .9170. The top of the uptrend is at .9282.  


INDICATORS
   
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bearish    
Ichimoku: Bullish (overbought)  

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Bearish early, then bullish  
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways  
LONG-TERM: Bullish

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