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November 19, 2009 7:20am CST

Asia FX FUTURES For the November 20 Open Call

The decline in the appetite for risk vaulted the dollar and the yen higher on Thursday, but they ended off their highs. The US data was mildly positive, but didn’t bring anything new to the table. The US stock indexes and oil fell as well, but gold marched higher.  

In the short term, the European and the commodity currencies should recover for at least half a day, while the yen should edge lower. My medium-term outlook for the foreign currency futures is bullish.

My model is now short all the European and the commodity currencies and long yen. My model is long the DJIA and S&P500.

Look for updates on my model’s positions on Twitter: They are free – for now. Then, you will have to subscribe to get the model turns in advance.

Good luck!

Cornelius
www.LucaFXTA.com


Overnight:
   
•    US: The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s general economic index rose to 16.7 in November from 11.5 in October.
•    US: The index of leading indicators rose for a seventh consecutive month, signaling the economy will keep growing into 2010. The Conference Board’s gauge of the outlook for the next three to six months rose 0.3% in after rising 1% in September. The index of coincident indicators was unchanged in October after falling 0.1% the prior month. The gauge of lagging indicators declined 0.2%.
•    US: Initial jobless claims were unchanged at 505,000 in the week ended November 14 (only because the previous week’s reading was bumped up from 502,000 initially reported for the prior week.
•    Canada: Leading indicators index rose 0.7% in October.


Today’s economic calendar:

•    Australia: No data
•    Japan: No data

December Euro

Luca Model: Short since November 19

The December euro has been alternating up and down days for four days and remains within Tuesday’s range. The euro should remain recover for at least half a day. The medium-term outlook remains bullish, even though the euro is trading in a triangle.

Immediate resistance is at 1.4927. The next level is 1.5015. The top of the uptrend is 1.5062. Distant resistance is pegged at 1.5135.

Initial support is seen at 1.4881 from the 21-day moving average. The next level is 1.4806. Further support is at 1.4738 from the 55-day moving average.  


INDICATORS
 
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bullish (overbought)


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

  
December Japanese Yen

Luca Model:  Long since November 13

The December yen hit a 1 ½-month high before trimming gains on Thursday. It should now edge lowers before the next rally. The medium-term outlook remains bullish.

Initial support is at 112.09. The next level is 111.69. The 21-day moving average supports at 111.25 and the 55-day moving average at a distant 110.19.   

The top of the upmove is at 112.71. A pivot high is perched at 113.68.


INDICATORS
 
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

December British Pound

Luca Model: Short since November 19

 

The overbought December pound fell for a third consecutive day and closed below the support line rising since October 13. This is endangering the bullish medium-term outlook. In the short term, the pound should bounce for half a day before declining further.    
 
Initial resistance is 1.6688. This is followed by 1.6744 and 1.6811. The top of the upmove is at 1.6876.  

Nearby support is at 1.6629. The 21-day moving average supports at 1.6574.  
 

INDICATORS
 
Fast stochastics: Bearish (oversold)
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bullish (overbought)

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

 
December Swiss Franc

Luca Model: Short since November 17

The December Swiss franc has been alternating up and down days for four days and closed lower in the US – but in an inside range. The short-term outlook is slightly bullish for half a day. The medium-term outlook remains bullish.

Immediate resistance is .9906. The high of the uptrend is .9979.     

Initial support is at .9850 from the 21-day moving average. The next levels are .9796 and .9738. A pivot low is at .9675.     


INDICATORS
 
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bullish


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

December Canadian Dollar

Luca Model: Short since November 19

The December Canadian dollar closed down for a third consecutive day. In the short term, the loonie should recover for at least half a day.

The 21-day moving average now resists at .9451. Further resistance is at .9505. Above .9599, strong resistance is at .9637.  

Initial support is at .9381 from the 55-day moving average. The next level is .9295. A pivot low is at .9212.  


INDICATORS
 
Fast stochastics: Bearish (oversold)
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
 

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish?
LONG-TERM: Bullish

December Australian Dollar 

Luca Model : Short since November 19

 

The December Australian dollar sank to a near two-week low on Thursday. It should bounce for half a day before the next decline. The medium-term outlook is bullish.

Initial resistance is pegged at .9196. Further resistance lies at .9283. The high of the uptrend is .9382.  

The 21-day moving average is supporting at .9160. Strong support follows at .9073. A pivot low is at .8882.


INDICATORS
   
Fast stochastics: Bearish (bearish divergence)
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bullish (overbought)  

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

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