Market Commentary and Analysis
RANsquawk DAILY G7 BOND AUCTION PREVIEW –... - 13 Feb 2012 02:15:02 CST
AUCTION PREVIEW: IT EUR 12bln combined 12- and flexible 4-month BOT Auctions Today the Italian...
RANsquawk DAILY UK OPENING NEWS – 13/02/12 - 13 Feb 2012 01:09:01 CST
The BoE is set to leave the door open to more QE this week with a quarterly inflation report that...
RANsquawk DAILY EUROPEAN OPENING NEWS –... - 13 Feb 2012 24:48:01 CST
ASIA At 0623GMT, JGB's were trading little changed in spite of the fact that Greece finally...
Asia FX - 12 Feb 2012 21:21:01 CST
The European and the commodity currencies opened higher but then quietly consolidated in the Far...
DJ CORRECT: Cotton Merchants Seek US Government... - 12 Feb 2012 04:42:00 CST
(A report, "Cotton Merchants Seek US Government Support To Stem Defaults" published...
 
Featured Reports
European Central Bank and Bank of England: Economic Preview - February 9, 2012
Predictions for Mario Draghi's upcoming press conference, likely dedicated to Greek PSI talks, as well as the upcoming 3-y LTRO program.
CPM Group: Commodities Views - February 6, 2012
Weekly market commentary on key commodities - energy, metals and the softs
Dow Jones Indexes Commodity Index Pre-Roll Analysis - February 3, 2012
Highlights for the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index as of February 1, 2012, including largest price increases and decreases, and formulas used.
Dow Jones - UBS Commodity Index - February 3, 2012
Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index. Long term and calendar year performance across sub-indexes, including Ags, Energy, Metals, Petroleum and Softs.
The Long and Short of It - February 2, 2012
Highlights the two spreads on the long- and the short-ends of the yield curve that are very interesting barometers of the general level of market risk.
Equity Market Monitor - 4th Quarter 2011 - February 2, 2012
This equity market monitor reviews macroeconomic and other factors that impact price performance of equity stock indexes in the recently completed quarter.
FINCAD: Basics of Hedge Effectiveness Testing and Measurement - February 1, 2012
Third paper in an ongoing series that outlines the principles of hedge accounting under current and expected International and U.S. accounting standards.
FINCAD: Basics of Credit Value Adjustments - February 1, 2012
Second paper in an ongoing series that outlines the principles of hedge accounting under current and expected International and U.S. accounting standards.
Robin Mesch Market Outlook - February 1, 2012
Mesch is a leading strategist in market theory. February 2012 edition covers crude, gold, E-mini S&P 500, 10-Year T-Notes. Includes Price Usage charts.
Fed Exercises "Greenspan Put" - January 30, 2012
FOMC issues a press release on Wednesday, January 25 indicating that it "expects to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy".
Dec-11 E-mini S&P 500 Roll Monitor - January 26, 2012
Financing rates in the Dec 2011/Mar 2012 spread fell well below LIBOR. Review this situation and monitor it with CME Group's Equity Quarterly Roll analyzer.
Risk Management for Central Bankers - January 26, 2012
Central banks play a paramount role in the course of global economy. But they also experience market risks associated with foreign security holdings.
Easy Money, FOMC Transparency, and Rate Volatility - January 25, 2012
Bernanke on how the FOMC has taken steps toward transparency, incl. the release of FOMC participant views on the likely path of the federal funds rate.
Annual Energy Outlook 2012 - January 23, 2012
Projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 2012 on what shapes U.S. energy markets long term, if current laws and regulations remain generally unchanged.
S&P Downgrades Eurozone Sovereign Debt - January 23, 2012
Standard & Poor’s downgrades long-term ratings of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) to AA+.
United States EIA Report on Gas Exports and Domestic Energy - January 20, 2012
Response to an Aug 2011 request from the DOE’s Dept. of Fossil Energy for analysis of "the impact of increased domestic natural gas demand, as exports."
Q4 2011 Liquidity Monitor - January 18, 2012
Quarterly report on liquidity in key CME Group flagship products.
The Nature of Futures Contracts - January 18, 2012
Study of the average holding period (AHP) of futures relative to the AHP associated with comparable spot or over-the-counter (OTC) instruments.
FINCAD Accounting Basics - January 18, 2012
First paper in an ongoing series that outlines the principles of hedge accounting under current and expected International and U.S. accounting standards.
Technical Patterns and Options Strategy Trading Central - January 17, 2012
Trading Central informs us on the long risk reversal strategy, including when to use it, profit and loss characteristics, and decay characteristics.
Q4 2011 Volatility Monitor - January 12, 2012
Each quarter the CME Group Research looks at the liquidity of its flagship futures and options products.
One Small Step for Nuclear, One Giant Leap for SMRs - January 6, 2012
Blue Phoenix, Inc. posits that the electronic revolution shows how vital electrical power is for the U.S. to remain competitive on the global stage.
Soybean Outlook for the New Year - December 27, 2011
A dry weather forecast for Argentina and southern Brazil threatens to disrupt production. Argentina may get about 30% of normal monthly precipitation.
Corn Outlook for the New Year - December 27, 2011
The corn market may be volatile in early 2012: shifting from tight stocks in 2011 to a surge in global and US production sparks an increase in supply.
US Economic Outlook Upgraded for 2012 - December 16, 2011
Bluford Putnam of CME Group on material improvements to the economic outlook for 2012. GDP, decreased unemployment and inflation rates are indicators.
China: Slower Export Growth, End of the Infrastructure Boom Years - December 12, 2011
China’s rate of GDP growth is decelerating, for some very obvious and also some less obvious reasons. Blu Putnam explores domestic and global causes.
Markets and Expectations in the Era of Dissonance - December 9, 2011
Risk management in an era of dissonance: developing strategies for risk management by better understanding the sources of the problems facing markets.
Hot Rolled Futures - Steel Market Update - December 9, 2011
This two-page report analyzes recent market performance of hot-rolled coil steel. It also examines the steel pricing curve, using trade data from the steel futures contracts traded at CME Group. This edition examines the price increase of CME Group’s U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled futures.
OTC Derivatives Market Monitor - December 6, 2011
BIS’s latest shows OTC and exchange traded derivatives industries recovered from downturn ala the subprime mortgage crisis, in terms of overt market size.
Central Banks Address Euro Debt Crisis - December 5, 2011
Board of Governors of the U.S. Federal Reserve System responds to distress apparent within the European banking system. Specific actions discussed.
Nikkei 225 Index (Yen) Futures Relative Performance - December 2, 2011
This article documents the recent performance of the Nikkei 225 futures contract in terms of its tracking integrity against the Nikkei 225 cash index.
CME Virtual Steel Mill - December 1, 2011
CME Virtual Steel Mill provides a comprehensive derivatives program for the steel market, including information on hot rolled coil and iron ore.
Keystone Pipeline: A Nuclear Ripple Effect - November 17, 2011
The US is facing another major challenge to its energy future. Rather than face that, it is kicking the can down the road to appease environmentalists.
Pursuing "Risk-on Risk-off" Trades - November 17, 2011
The economic turmoil of the past year has led to increased interest in volatility hedging strategies. See how instruments like US T-bills and swap spreads can be used to your advantage.
CAPM & Select Sector Futures - November 8, 2011
Capital Asset Pricing Model sets the theoretical rate of return investors expect from assets. Formula on expected return v predicted theoretical return.
CME Group New Product Success - November 8, 2011
Assessing the success of new product development efforts vis peer derivatives exchanges. Inquiry limited to CME Group exchanges: CME, CBOT, NYMEX/COMEX.
Increased Interest in Futures Shows a Changing Steel Industry - November 4, 2011
Chinese demand and affect on global price of iron ore, industry response. Harriet Hunnable of CME Group delves into the recent growth in steel futures.
Understanding the SOQ - November 4, 2011
Domestic stock index futures traded on CME Group exchanges and on other exchanges are typically settled to a "Special Opening Quotation" (SOQ).
Understanding "Ex-Pit" Transactions - October 26, 2011
This document is intended to explain ex-pit transactions including EFRPs and blocks as they are currently practiced in CME Group markets, using our interest rate futures contracts as the focus of this discussion.
SILVER: Continuation of Descending Price Channel - October 26, 2011
This article discusses the strategic use of short risk reversals in the continuing bearish price channel for silver. Graphically illustrated, with brief profit/loss and decay discussions.
The Hightower Report - Rice Rebound? - October 21, 2011
The rice market has mostly followed the other grain markets in recent months, but the price pattern has been closer to the corn market than the wheat market.
Talking Points - Tools for Index Discussions: Commodity Indexes - October 12, 2011
A comparison of the Agriculture and Energy subindexes within the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index.
Q4 Mesch Currency Outlook - October 7, 2011
The Mesch Currency Outlook offers a technical perspective of six major world currencies using market profile.
Portfolio Margining with CME Euribor Futures - October 5, 2011
No longer must the user post full margin on interest rate positions that are broken up across multiple clearing houses. CME Clearing calculates futures margin requirements using SPAN, an optimal margining process that calculates risk on the basis of the entire futures portfolio, resulting in more efficient and appropriate margin requirements.
The Virtual Steel Mill: A comprehensive approach to derivatives for the ferrous - October 4, 2011
The CME Group vision of a "Virtual Steel Mill," where raw materials, semi finished and finished steel products can all be sold or bought, either on a spot or a fixed forward basis, without disadvantaging other parties in the supply chain.
Analysis of Volatility and Correlation for CME Steel Products - October 4, 2011
An investigation of the correlation between the various steel products and the raw materials used in their production process, and how sudden changes in the level of correlations may have detrimental implications not only for hedging and risk management but also in shaping the efficiency of a country’s energy, manufacturing and food policies.
Fed Announces Operation Twist v.2 - October 3, 2011
Motivated in part by the FOMC’s dour employment outlook and strains in global financial markets, the Federal Reserve announced it would initiate an updated version of Operation Twist.
Bottom Line vs Top of Book: Treasury Futures at CME Group and Elsewhere - October 3, 2011
Exchanges offer tight spreads and bargain level transaction and clearing fees to attempt to counter the CBOT Treasury Futures.
Bottom Line vs Top of Book: Eurodollar Futures at CME Group and Elsewhere - October 3, 2011
Exchanges offer tight spreads and bargain level transaction and clearing fees to attempt to counter the CME Eurodollar futures order book.
 
DISCLAIMER: The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinions expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
 
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