Markets and Expectations in the Era of Dissonance
By Bluford Putnam - Mon Dec 05 16:07:00 CST 2011 CT
Era of Dissonance

The Three P's: Population, Property Rights, and Policy Constraints

In these challenging times, one thing seems certain: the status quo is not sustainable. When a large number of market participants believe that statement and apply it to the prices of many different types of exposures there are going to be challenges. The expectations process that underlies market behavior is highly likely to exhibit abrupt changes in correlation structures and dynamically shifting levels of volatility in addition to some sharp movements in prices.

This spells big trouble for financial risk management, argues for greater use of options to manage volatility risk, suggests more attention has to be paid to counterparty risk, and challenges some of the critical assumptions embedded deeply into quantitative methods for analyzing risks and constructing portfolios.


 
 
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