Market Insights: FOMC Members Become Slightly More Optimistic

FOMC Participants 2012 Real GDP Projections

The FOMC did not change policy at its two-day meeting on 24 – 25 April 2012, but it did release the views of its voting and non-voting members that showed a slight shift to more optimism about the US economy. Specifically, FOMC members raised their central tendency for their 2012 US real GDP projection from 2.2%-2.7% (January 25, 2012) to 2.4%-2.9% (April 25, 2012). 

This increased optimism of the FOMC members’ projections of real GDP were also reflected in their answers to the question of when the federal fund rate would first be increased. At the January meeting of the FOMC, there were two members projecting that rates would not rise until 2016. These two super-pessimists moved into the 2015 camp, while two of the 2015 camp moved into 2014. The new dispersion of views ranges from six members saying rates should rise in 2012 or 2013, seven members in the 2014 camp, and four in the 2015 camp.