IT: CPI


Thu Jun 15 03:00:00 CDT 2017

Consensus Actual Previous
Month over Month -0.2% -0.2% -0.2%
Year over Year 1.4% 1.4% 1.4%

Highlights
The sharp deceleration in inflation shown in the provisional data was confirmed in the final report for May. The headline CPI fell an unrevised 0.2 percent on the month to reduce the annual inflation rate by some 0.5 percentage points to 1.4 percent. This fully reversed the Easter-distorted bounce in April and matches the lowest yearly outturn since January.

Meantime, the flash HICP was revised a tick firmer and so now shows a 0.1 percent decrease versus April and a 1.6 percent 12-month rate, down from 2.0 percent last time.

As previously indicated the slowdown in the annual CPI rate was largely due to a sharp fall in energy where the non-regulated rate slumped from 9.1 percent to 6.8 percent. Unprocessed food (3.8 percent after 4.7 percent) also weighed. Nonetheless, even without the more volatile items, the core rate still eased from 1.1 percent to 0.7 percent.

In line with most of Europe, recent CPI data have been heavily distorted by Easter. Today's outturn probably gives a better picture of where inflation really lies. Prices seem to have recovered from earlier acute weakness but remain unlikely to show anything more than a very sluggish uptrend over coming months.

Definition
The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly and annual changes in the CPI provide widely used measures of inflation. A provisional estimate, with limited detail, is released about two weeks before the final data are reported.

Description
The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In countries such as the Italy where monetary policy decisions rest on the central bank's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer. As a member of the European Monetary Union, Italy's interest rates are set by the European Central Bank.

Italy like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies. The core CPI, which excludes fresh food, is usually the preferred indicator of short-term inflation pressures.

Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.

By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.