US: FOMC Forecasts

Wed Jun 14 13:00:00 CDT 2017

The Fed now releases economic projections four times a year (March, June, September, and December). Traditionally, the Fed forecasts covered GDP, the PCE price index, and the civilian unemployment rate. However, the forecast report additionally now includes forecasts for the appropriate timing of the next change in the fed funds rate and the expected fed funds rate at the end of the next two years. The forecasts are released at the same time as the FOMC statement which is 2:00 p.m. ET and 30 minutes prior to the Fed chair's press conference which addresses the forecasts and Fed policy in general. The forecasts are a composite of individual forecasts by each Fed governor and each District president and cover two to three years out on an annual basis. The GDP, inflation, and unemployment numbers are published as a "central tendency" and also as a range. The central tendency is an average of the forecasts after the highest and lowest forecasts are removed. The range shows the highest and lowest forecasts for these indicators.