GB: Halifax HPI


Wed Dec 07 02:30:00 CST 2016

Consensus Actual Previous Revised
M/M % change 0.2% 0.2% 1.4% 1.5%
Yr/Yr % change- 3 mo moving av 6.1% 6.0% 5.2%

Highlights
According to the Halifax, average house prices edged up 0.2 percent on the month in November, their third successive advance and in line with expectations. The increase followed a marginally larger revised 1.5 percent gain in October and lifted annual growth of the 3-month moving average measure from 5.2 percent to 6.0 percent, the first acceleration since March.

Over the latest three months, prices were up 0.8 percent, a marked improvement on October's 0.1 percent rate and the strongest print since July. However, Halifax also noted a drop in housing market confidence to its lowest level in three years although the same survey still found some 57 percent of respondents anticipating higher house prices in a year's time versus only 15 percent expecting a decline.

Overall it looks as if the market is settling down into a period of more subdued, but at least positive growth. Demand appears to have broadly stabilised and supply remains as tight as ever. Recent developments here should leave the BoE MPC cautiously content.

Definition
The Halifax House Price Index (HPI) is the UK's longest running monthly house price measure with data covering the whole country going back to January 1983. The index is based on the largest monthly sample of mortgage data, typically covering around 15,000 house purchases per month, and covers the whole calendar month. In March 2016 Markit announced that it would be acquiring the Halifax HPI from Lloyds Banking Group. Halifax continues to publish the index on behalf of Markit and both the name and methodology remain unchanged.

Description
Home values affect much in the economy - especially the housing and consumer sectors. Periods of rising home values encourage new construction while periods of soft home prices can damp housing starts. Changes in home values play key roles in consumer spending and in consumer financial health. During the first half of this decade sharply rising home prices boosted how much home equity households held. In turn, this increased consumers' ability to spend, based on wealth effects and from being able to draw upon expanding home equity lines of credit.