The unadjusted Ivey PMI edged up just 0.1 points to 56.8 in February. Seasonally adjusted however, the index declined sharply and at 53.4, was nearly 13 points below its January reading and, on paper, indicative of a marked slowdown in economic activity.
Amongst the adjusted subcomponents, the employment gauge dropped from 55.1 to 50.3, its lowest reading since last October and potentially indicative of a soft payroll in next week's official labour force report. Delivery times (49.4) were little changed over the month as were inventories (49.9) following their marked accumulation at the start of the year (61.4). Lastly, prices (57.8) continued to climb but at a much reduced rate versus last time (71.6).
Overall today's results suggest only a modest month for the economy but if the January findings prove broadly accurate, first quarter GDP should still hold up quite well.
The Ivey Purchasing Managers Index measures month to month changes in dollars of purchases as indicated by a panel of purchasing managers from across Canada. The 175 participants in this survey have been carefully selected geographically and by sector of activity to match the Canadian economy as a whole. The index includes both the public and private sectors. Index panel members indicate whether their organizations activity is higher than the same as or lower than the previous month across the following five categories - purchases, employment, inventories, supplier deliveries and prices. The Ivey Purchasing Managers Index is sponsored by the Richard Ivey School of Business and the Purchasing Management Association of Canada.
The Ivey PMI is provided in two formats -- unadjusted and seasonally adjusted. The index shows responses to one question: "Were your purchases last month in dollars higher, the same, or lower than the previous month?" A figure above 50 shows an increase while below 50 shows a decrease.
The index measures the month to month variation in economic activity as indicated by a panel of purchasing managers. The index uses end of the month data and it covers all sections of Canada's economy. The PMI includes both the public and private sectors and is based on month end data Ivey PMI panel members indicate whether their organizations activity is higher than, the same as, or lower than the previous month across the following five categories: purchases, employment, inventories, supplier deliveries and prices.
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