US: ADP Employment Report

Wed Jan 06 07:15:00 CST 2016

Consensus Consensus Range Actual Previous Revised
ADP employment 190,000 180,000 to 227,000 257,000 217,000 211,000

ADP is calling for unusual strength in Friday's employment report, at 257,000 for private payrolls which is far outside Econoday's consensus at 190,000 and well outside the high estimate for 227,000. Strength of this degree would underscore the health of the labor market and would begin to seal expectations for a rate hike at the March FOMC. ADP isn't always an accurate barometer for the employment report but today's results could definitely affect the markets.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
ADP's private payroll tally for December is expected to rise 190,000 in a gain that would point to solid strength for Friday's employment report. ADP is not always a reliable indicator but this report did forecast what turned out to be strength for the November employment report.

The ADP national employment report is computed from a subset of ADP records that represent approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients and approximately 23 million U.S. employees working in all private industrial sectors. ADP contracted with Moody's Analytics to compute a monthly report that would ultimately help to predict monthly nonfarm payrolls from the Bureau of Labor Statistic's employment situation. The ADP report only covers private (excluding government) payrolls.

Market players have become accustomed to the excitement on employment Friday and realize the rich detail of the monthly employment situation can help set the tone for the entire month. While economists have certainly improved their nonfarm payroll forecasts over the years, it is not unusual to see surprises on employment Friday. To that end, the new ADP national employment report can help improve the payroll forecast by providing information in advance of the employment report.

The employment statistics also provide insight on wage trends, and wage inflation is high on the list of enemies for the Federal Reserve. Fed officials constantly monitor this data watching for even the smallest signs of potential inflationary pressures, even when economic conditions are soggy. If inflation is under control, it is easier for the Fed to maintain a more accommodative monetary policy. If inflation is a problem, the Fed is limited in providing economic stimulus. The ADP national employment report does not yet have wage information, but their goal is to provide wage information, along with industry and regional information as well.

By tracking jobs, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise; bond and stock prices will fall. No doubt that the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who watched the employment report and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events. In contrast, when job growth is slow or negative, then interest rates are likely to decline - boosting up bond and stock prices in the process.