There were no surprises from the BoC today. Benchmark interest rates were duly left unchanged with the key target overnight rate pegged at 0.5 percent, above the 0.25 percent deposit rate and below the 0.75 percent Bank Rate.
In justifying its steady stance the central bank pointed to global and domestic economic developments moving much in line with its October forecast.
Perceived risks to the inflation outlook were described as roughly balanced, suggesting that the monetary authority was not overly troubled by yesterday's surprisingly sharp contraction in September GDP. However, a poor employment report tomorrow could still prompt the adoption of a more dovish tone early next year, irrespective of what the Fed might do with its policy this month.
The central bank of Canada announces its monetary policy with regard to interest rates about eight times a year. The announcement conveys to the financial markets and investors what, if any, changes in policy might be.
Bank of Canada determines interest rate policy at eight meetings during the year and they are an influential event for the markets. Prior to each meeting, market participants speculate about the possibility of an interest rate change. A post-meeting statement is issued after each meeting. Unlike the Federal Reserve, there are no post-meeting minutes. The Bank has an inflation target range of 1 percent to 3 percent with specific focus on the 2 percent midpoint.
Although the Bank monitors many economic indicators, as indeed all central banks do, the Bank converted its inflation barometer for operational purposes to a consumer price index measure that subtracts eight volatile components to better reflect core inflation. It also takes the foreign exchange rate for the Canadian dollar into its monetary policy decisions.
Monetary policy goals are to aid and abet solid economic growth along with rising living standards. To achieve these goals, inflation is kept low, stable, and predictable. The inflation control target is at the heart of Canadian monetary policy that the Bank and the Government have established. The level of interest rates and the exchange rate determine the monetary environment in which the Canadian economy operates.
The level of interest rates affects the economy. Higher interest rates tend to slow economic activity; lower interest rates stimulate economic activity. Either way, interest rates influence the sales environment. In the consumer sector, few homes or cars will be purchased when interest rates rise. Furthermore, interest rate costs are a significant factor for many businesses, particularly for companies with high debt loads or who have to finance high inventory levels. This interest cost has a direct impact on corporate profits. The bottom line is that higher interest rates are bearish for the financial markets, while lower interest rates are bullish.
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