CH: Consumer Price Index

Thu Nov 05 02:15:00 CST 2015

Consensus Actual Previous
M/M % change 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Y/Y % change -1.4% -1.4% -1.4%

Consumer prices were marginally stronger than expected in October but not so as to make any difference to a still very soft inflation picture. The headline CPI edged 0.1 percent higher on the month, matching its September outturn and leaving the annual inflation rate steady at minus 1.4 percent for a third successive month.

Petrol prices rose 0.6 percent versus September but had only a limited impact on the headline index. Much more significant was a 5.5 percent spike in clothing and shoes which added 0.2 percentage points to the monthly change, although this was essentially just a seasonal bounce. Elsewhere, most subsectors saw monthly declines with food and non-alcoholic drinks (minus 0.5 percent) and communication (minus 1.5 percent) particularly soft.

As a result, the core CPI which excludes energy and unprocessed food rose a monthly 0.2 percent, a small enough advance to see the annual underlying rate slip from minus 0.7 percent in September to minus 0.8 percent. This will put additional pressure on the SNB to relax still further its policy stance next month.

The consumer price index measures the price of a basket of goods (commodities and services) which is assumed to represent the average consumption habits of private households. The consumer price index is thus a yardstick for the cost development of the goods consumed (price level). Although not a member of the Eurozone, a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP), measured according to Eurostat's procedures is also published alongside the CPI.

The price level is the weighted average of various output prices in the economy. The price level measures the price of a defined basket of goods which is a cross-section of the goods produced or consumed in an economy (commodities and services). A stable price level does not necessarily imply stable unit prices: price rises for individual goods may be compensated by price reductions for other goods so that overall the price level remains constant. A rise in the price level implies a decline in the purchasing power of money: on average, a monetary unit will buy a smaller number of commodity units. Consequently, the price level and monetary value always exhibit opposite development.

The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets- and your investments. Inflation (along with various risks) basically explains how interest rates are set on everything from loans to notes and bonds. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion. By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.