Wed Oct 14 01:30:00 CDT 2015

Consensus Actual Previous
Y/Y % change -4.43% -4.54% -4.95%

WPI deflation slowed in September. At 4.54 percent, the annual decline in wholesale prices was slightly less than in August and only fractionally steeper than the market consensus.

The modest gain in the headline rate masked a larger fall in fuel prices (17.71 percent) and reflected instead some easing in deflationary pressures in manufacturing (minus 1.73 percent) and a return to positive inflation in the food sector (0.69 percent).

Following the rise in September's CPI inflation rate reported on Monday, today's data further increase the likelihood that the RBI will be on hold through year-end.

The wholesale price index tracks the average changes in price of a fixed representative basket of wholesale goods. The basket includes goods from the most important sectors in India's economy, such as: food products, fuel and power, textiles, rubber, metal products, machinery and chemicals. It is calculated using a weighted arithmetic average of wholesale prices. The WPI is one of the Reserve Bank of India's inflation measures.

The Wholesale Price Index is closely followed as an indicator of inflation by the Reserve Bank of India, as well as many Indian corporations and banks.

Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the WPI influence the markets - and your investments.

Inflation (along with various risks) basically explains how interest rates are set on everything from your mortgage and auto loans to Treasury bills, notes and bonds. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.

By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the WPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.