GB: Halifax HPI

Thu Sep 10 02:00:00 CDT 2015

Consensus Actual Previous Revised
M/M % change 0.5% 2.7% -0.6% -0.4%
Yr/Yr % change- 3 mo moving av 7.9% 9.0% 7.9% 7.8%

Following their surprise, albeit smaller revised, decline in July, house prices rebounded sharply in August according to the new Halifax survey. A 2.7 percent monthly jump was the largest increase since May 2014 and boosted HPI growth over the last three months to 3.0 percent, up from July's 2.5 percent rate but still short of June's 3.3 percent print. Compared with a year ago, prices for the same period gained 9.0 percent after a 7.8 percent rise last time.

Halifax's August's report was significantly more buoyant than the comparable Nationwide survey which found prices only 0.3 percent higher versus July and a relatively modest 3.2 percent stronger on the year. Still, both surveys suggest that the UK housing market continues to expand with prices underpinned by a combination of decent demand and very tight supply.

The BoE MPC is known to be keeping a wary eye on this market and today's findings will not sit well with the MPC's hawks. That said, the majority of members seem cautiously comfortable with the way the economy in general is performing and another steady interest rate decision at today's meeting seems all but assured.

Halifax House Price Index is the UK's longest running monthly house price measure with data covering the whole country going back to January 1983. The Index is based on the largest monthly sample of mortgage data, typically covering around 15,000 house purchases per month, and covers the whole calendar month.

Home values affect much in the economy - especially the housing and consumer sectors. Periods of rising home values encourage new construction while periods of soft home prices can damp housing starts. Changes in home values play key roles in consumer spending and in consumer financial health. During the first half of this decade sharply rising home prices boosted how much home equity households held. In turn, this increased consumers' ability to spend, based on wealth effects and from being able to draw upon expanding home equity lines of credit.