US: Consumer Credit

Tue Sep 08 14:00:00 CDT 2015

Consensus Consensus Range Actual Previous Revised
Consumer Credit - M/M change $18.0B $17.0B to $24.0B $19.1B $20.7B $27.0B

Boosted by another gain for revolving credit, consumer credit rose $19.1 billion in July. Revolving credit, where credit cards are tracked, rose $4.3 billion for a fifth straight gain and the best run of the recovery. Non-revolving credit rose $14.8 billion reflecting strength for vehicle sales and also student loans which are tracked in this component. The news on credit cards is good, pointing to consumer willingness to take on debt in what is a plus ahead for the holiday shopping season.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Consumer credit is expected to pull back from June's outsized rise of $20.7 billion, to a consensus $18.0 billion in July. Revolving credit has been showing some life recently suggesting that consumers are growing less reluctant to run up their credit cards.

The dollar value of consumer installment credit outstanding. Changes in consumer credit indicate the state of consumer finances and portend future spending patterns.

Growth in consumer credit can hold positive or negative implications for the economy and markets. Economic activity is stimulated when consumers borrow within their means to buy cars and other major purchases. On the other hand, if consumers pile up too much debt relative to their income levels, they may have to stop spending on new goods and services just to pay off old debts. That could put a big dent in economic growth.

The demand for credit also has a direct bearing on interest rates. If the demand to borrow money exceeds the supply of willing lenders, interest rates rise. If credit demand falls and many willing lenders are fighting for customers, they may offer lower interest rates to attract business.

Financial market players focus less attention on this indicator because it is reported with a long lag relative to other consumer information. Long term investors who do pay attention to this report will have a greater understanding of consumer spending ability. This will give them a lead on investment alternatives. Also, during times of distress in credit markets, consumer credit can give an idea about how willing banks are to lend.