IT: CPI


Mon Aug 31 04:00:00 CDT 2015

Consensus Actual Previous
Month over Month 0.1% 0.2% -0.1%
Year over Year 0.1% 0.2% 0.2%

Highlights
Consumer prices were a little firmer than expected in August. The CPI provisionally rose 0.2 percent on the month and on the year, the latter rate unchanged from its final mark in both June and July.

The HICP was only flat versus July but this was still strong enough to secure a welcome 0.2 percentage point increase in its annual rate to 0.5 percent.

Overall prices would have risen more but for renewed weakness in the energy sector where charges were 1.2 percent lower on the month and down 6.3 percent on the year after a 5.5 percent annual decline last time. Even so, the yearly core inflation rate (CPI ex-unprocessed food and energy) still slipped a tick to 0.7 percent.

In line with the full Eurozone inflation data, today's Italian update offers hope that prices in the region's third largest member state are beginning to stabilise. Still, it is early days yet with weak household demand offering minimal support and potential energy market developments clearly a threat, downside risks remain very significant.

Definition
The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly and annual changes in the CPI provide the most closely watched measures of the inflation rate. A flash estimate is available normally in the last week of the reference month or the first week of the following month.

Description
The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In countries such as the Italy where monetary policy decisions rest on the central bank's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer. As a member of the European Monetary Union, Italy's interest rates are set by the European Central Bank.

Italy like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies. The core CPI, which excludes fresh food, is usually the preferred indicator of short-term inflation pressures.

Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.

By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.