CN: Merchandise Trade Balance

Sun Jul 12 21:00:00 CDT 2015

Consensus Actual Previous
level $55.4B $46.6B $59.49B
Exports-Y/Y -1.0% 2.1% -2.5%
Imports-Y/Y -16.5% -6.7% -17.6%

China's June merchandise trade surplus was $46.6 billion against expectations of a $55.3 billion surplus. In Yuan terms, exports were up 2.1 percent on the year while imports tumbled 6.7 percent. The first half of 2015 trade balance was CNY1.61 trillion or $263.9 billion. On a seasonally adjusted basis, exports were up 1.1 percent on the year after sliding 1.4 percent in May. Seasonally adjusted imports dropped 9.9 percent after a 14.1 percent plunge.

According to Chinese Customs, expectations are for export growth to rebound in the second half of the year. It noted that the Greek crisis will have some impact on China's trade it is hard to quantify just how big an impact there will be.

The merchandise trade balance is the difference in value between imported and exported goods. A positive number indicates that more goods were exported than imported. The data are released in yuan but are converted to U.S. dollar terms.

Changes in the level of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance) are a valuable gauge of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they also affect currency values in foreign exchange markets. However, the foreign exchange impact is muted here given that the currency is pegged to a basket of currencies and its value is determined daily by the government.

China's growth stems from its exports to the industrialized world. And in turn, global growth is dependent upon Chinese growth, especially since the financial woes of 2008.

Merchandise trade statistics are compiled and published by Customs General Administration (CGA) on a monthly basis. Preliminary estimates are available about 13 days after the reference month with details available within 25 days. Since 1980, the compilation of Customs statistics follows the concepts and definitions of the International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Concepts and Definitions. Data are released for total imports and exports in the Chinese currency and the U.S. dollar. There are five main categories each for primary and manufactured goods. Detailed information is available by category, destination country, foreign enterprises and domestic region to name a few. Geographically, the data covers the customs territory of the mainland China and excludes Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan.