Fri Jul 31 01:45:00 CDT 2015

Consensus Actual Previous Revised
Month over Month -0.1% -0.2% -0.5%
Year over Year -1.9% -1.7% -1.6%

Producer prices (ex-construction) fell for a third consecutive month in June. A 0.2 percent decline versus May was enough to reduce annual PPI inflation from minus 1.6 percent to minus 1.9 percent, its steepest drop since February.

June's headline decline was led by energy as coke and refined petroleum product prices fell 2.3 percent on the month. In addition, the other manufactured products category slipped 0.2 percent as did transport equipment. Food, drink and tobacco saw no change while electronic equipment, information technology and machines edged up 0.1 percent.

Today's release puts the headline PPI at its second weakest level since March 2011 and some 4.7 percent below its March 2013 peak. Annual consumer price inflation has been above zero for the last three months but only just (June 0.3 percent) and last month's PPI data emphasise that deflation risks in the French economy remain a very real threat.

The producer price index (PPI) is a measure of the average transaction price, exclusive of VAT, for goods from industrial activities sold on the French market.

The PPI measures prices at the producer level before they are passed along to consumers. Since the producer price index measures prices of consumer goods and capital equipment, a portion of the inflation at the producer level gets passed through to the consumer price index (CPI).

Because the index of producer prices measures price changes at an early stage in the economic process, it can serve as an indicator of future inflation trends. The producer price index and its sub-indexes are often used in business contracts for the adjustment of recurring payments. They also are used to deflate other values of economic statistics like the production index. It should be noted that the PPI excludes construction.

The PPI provides a key measure of inflation alongside the consumer price indexes and GDP deflators. The output price indexes measure change in manufacturer' goods prices produced and often are referred to as factory gate prices. Input prices are not limited to just those materials used in the final product, but also include what is required by the company in its normal day-to-day operations.

The PPI is considered a precursor of both consumer price inflation and profits. If the prices paid to manufacturers increase, businesses are faced with either charging higher prices or they taking a cut in profits. The ability to pass along price increases depends on the strength and competitiveness of the marketplace.

The bond market rallies when the PPI decreases or posts only small increases, but bond prices fall when the PPI posts larger-than-expected gains. The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.