IT: CPI


Tue Jul 14 03:00:00 CDT 2015

Consensus Actual Previous
Month over Month 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Year over Year 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%

Highlights
Consumer prices were a little stronger than originally thought in June. The final CPI showed a 0.2 percent monthly gain, up 0.1 percentage points versus its provisional estimate, to nudge annual inflation also a tick higher to 0.2 percent after a 0.1 percent yearly rate in May.

The HICP was also revised 0.1 percentage points higher to a 0.2 percent monthly gain although its yearly rate was unchanged at 0.2 percent.

The monthly increase in headline consumer prices was in part due to seasonal factors. Annual goods inflation was stable at minus 0.3 percent and core inflation, which excludes energy and unprocessed food, was similarly steady at May's 0.6 percent mark.

Headline inflation now equals its highest level since last June but underlying pressures remain soft. Economic growth appears to be on an upswing but domestic demand is still too sluggish to accommodate any meaningful increase in selling prices, especially in the goods producing sector.

Definition
The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly and annual changes in the CPI provide the most closely watched measures of the inflation rate. A flash estimate is available normally in the last week of the reference month or the first week of the following month.

Description
The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In countries such as the Italy where monetary policy decisions rest on the central bank's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer. As a member of the European Monetary Union, Italy's interest rates are set by the European Central Bank.

Italy like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies. The core CPI, which excludes fresh food, is usually the preferred indicator of short-term inflation pressures.

Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.

By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.