GB: Producer Price Index

Tue Jul 14 03:30:00 CDT 2015

Consensus Actual Previous Revised
Output-M/M 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Output-Y/Y -1.5% -1.5% -1.6%
Input-M/M -0.7% -1.3% -0.9% -1.1%
Input-Y/Y -11.8% -12.6% -12.0% -12.3%

Factory gate prices moved broadly in line with expectations in June. An unchanged level versus May, when prices were up an unrevised 0.1 percent, saw the annual fall ease just a tick to 1.5 percent. At the same time, input costs decreased a sharper than expected 1.3 percent on the month after a steeper revised 1.1 percent drop last time. This made for a 12.6 percent annual decrease following a 12.3 percent decline in mid-quarter.

Output prices showed little volatility across all sectors with the sharpest monthly move only minus 0.3 percent in food products. As a result, core prices were also unchanged on the month and, at 0.1 percent, their annual rate was similarly flat.

Input costs were driven down on the month by a combination of hefty declines in crude oil (3.3 percent), home food materials (3.5 percent) and imported metals (2.2 percent). In fact, all subsectors registered monthly decreases bar fuel (up 0.6 percent).

The ongoing weakness of the PPIs continues to point to a generally subdued CPI inflation profile going forward. Today's figures should leave speculation about the first hike in interest rates this cycle firmly focussed on next year.

The PPI measures prices at the producer level before they are passed along to consumers. The two major components are input prices - that is those paid by producers for things like raw materials - and output or factory gate prices. Output prices measure the prices producers are able to charge for the goods they produce.

The PPI measures prices at the producer level before they are passed along to consumers. Since the producer price index measures prices of consumer goods and capital equipment, a portion of the inflation at the producer level gets passed through to the consumer price index (CPI). By tracking price pressures in the pipeline, investors can anticipate inflationary consequences in coming months. A producer's price is the amount received by a producer from the purchaser of a unit of goods or services produced as output less any value added tax (VAT) or similar deductible tax, invoiced to the purchaser. It excludes any transportation charges invoiced separately by the producer.

The PPI provides a key measure of inflation alongside the consumer price indexes and GDP deflators. The output price indexes measure change in manufacturer' goods prices produced and often are referred to as factory gate prices. Input prices are not limited to just those materials used in the final product, but also include what is required by the company in its normal day-to-day operations.

The PPI is considered a precursor of both consumer price inflation and profits. If the prices paid to manufacturers increase, businesses are faced with either charging higher prices or taking a cut in profits. The ability to pass along price increases depends on the strength and competitiveness of the marketplace.

The bond market rallies when the PPI decreases or posts only small increases, but bond prices fall when the PPI posts larger-than-expected gains. The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.