US: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

Tue Jun 09 08:00:00 CDT 2015

Consensus Consensus Range Actual Previous
level 97.2 96.0 to 97.3 98.3 96.9

The small business optimism index came in well above expectations, at 98.3 for a very solid 1.4 point gain from April's 96.9 and compared with the Econoday consensus for 97.2. The gain is centered right where small business owners need it the most, in earnings trends. The gain here in turn is lifting the small business outlook with more saying this is now a good time to expand. The outlook on the general economy is also up as are job readings. This report hints at the big second-quarter rebound that many have been expecting.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Until the last few months, the small business optimism index had been lagging behind but then sent out a very strong signal in April. For May, forecasters are looking for a solid increase from April's 96.9 to 97.2.

The small business optimism index is compiled from a survey that is conducted each month by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) of its members. The index is a composite of ten seasonally adjusted components based on questions on the following: plans to increase employment, plans to make capital outlays, plans to increase inventories, expect economy to improve, expect real sales higher, current inventory, current job openings, expected credit conditions, now a good time to expand, and earnings trend.

Small businesses are responsible for a majority of new job creation and the NFIB focuses on this sector of the economy. The direction of the health of small businesses can portend changes in the stock market - especially small caps.