US: State Street Investor Confidence Index

Tue Jun 30 09:00:00 CDT 2015

Actual Previous Revised
State Street Investor Confidence Index 127.0 120.8 121.4

Led by unusually strong North American appetite for risk, the investor confidence index for June is up 5.6 points to 127.0. The North American component is up 11.7 points to 142.9 with Europe lagging at 102.5 and Asia below breakeven 100 at 87.6. The report attributes North American confidence to a dovish Fed which at mid-month lowered its 2015 economic forecasts and seemed in no hurry to raise rates. On Greece, the report notes little effect on European confidence which it warns could be misplaced if related contagion develops.

The State Street Investor Confidence Index measures confidence by looking at actual levels of risk in investment portfolios. This is not an attitude survey. The State Street Investor Confidence Index measures confidence directly by assessing the changes in investor holdings of equities. The more of their portfolio that institutional investors are willing to invest in equities, the greater their confidence. The report's main index is global and is based on activity in 45 countries. The report tracks more than 22 million transactions annually. There are three published components: North America, Europe and Asia-Pacific. The separate weightings of the three components vary month to month based on investment activity and are not published. Also included in the global index, but also not published, is activity in South America and the Middle East.

Conventional wisdom suggests investors are confident when stocks are rising and pessimistic when falling. But in fact, the State Street group notes prices tend to be higher when economic fundamentals are strong; i.e., when economic indicators are growing at a healthy clip. But a good investor confidence measure "should indicate whether, for a given set of fundamentals, investors are bullish or bearish on risky assets." State Street believes direct measurement, rather than a survey of portfolio managers who often don't have time to fill out monthly questionnaires, is a more reliable approach to sentiment assessment. The investor confidence index is compiled with techniques based on modern portfolio theory. According to State Street, "the more of their portfolios that professional investors are willing to devote to riskier as opposed to safer investments, the greater their risk appetite or confidence." So when investors choose to increase their holdings of risky assets, this confirms their confidence has increased. Incidentally, State Street believes investor confidence can exist in a bear market as well as a bull market. Since market players have become so enamored with consumer attitude surveys, it probably would be useful for both professional portfolio managers and amateur investors to consider investor attitudes.