AU: RBA Announcement

Mon May 04 23:30:00 CDT 2015

Consensus Actual Previous
Change -25bp -25bp 0bp
Level 2.00% 2.00% 2.25%

As expected the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its policy cash rate by 25 basis points to a record low of 2 percent. The RBA last lowered its interest rate to 2.25 percent in a surprise move in February 2015. In his statement, Governor Glenn Stevens said that the inflation outlook provided the opportunity to ease further "so as to reinforce recent encouraging trends in household demand." Recently released inflation data for the first three months of this year came in marginally ahead of expectations, with the core measure rising 2.3 percent year-on-year. That is still at the low end of the RBA's target range of 2 percent to 3 percent, so is unlikely to have posed a major impediment to today's decision.

He noted that the Australian dollar has declined noticeably against a rising US dollar over the past year, though less so against a basket of currencies. Further depreciation seems both likely and necessary, particularly given the significant declines in key commodity prices. Financial conditions remain accommodative globally with some major central banks stepping up the pace of unconventional policy measures even though the Federal Reserve is expected to start increasing its policy rate later this year.

The statement said "In Australia, the available information suggests improved trends in household demand over the past six months and stronger growth in employment. Looking ahead, the key drag on private demand is likely to be weakness in business capital expenditure in both the mining and non-mining sectors over the coming year. Public spending is also scheduled to be subdued. The economy is therefore likely to be operating with a degree of spare capacity for some time yet. Inflation is forecast to remain consistent with the target over the next one to two years, even with a lower exchange rate."

The central bank of Australia announces its monetary policy with regard to interest rates on the first Tuesday of each month with the exception of January.

The Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA's) main responsibility is monetary policy. Policy decisions are made by the Reserve Bank Board with the objective of achieving low and stable inflation over the medium term. Other responsibilities include maintaining financial system stability, while at the same time promoting the safety and efficiency of the payments system. The RBA regards appropriate monetary policy as a major factor contributing to the Australian dollar's stability, which in turn leads to full employment and the economic prosperity for Australia.

The RBA is unique among the central banks - it has two boards with complementary responsibilities. The Reserve Bank Board is responsible for monetary policy and overall financial system stability. The Payments System Board has specific responsibility for the safety and efficiency of the payments system.

The RBA sets an interest rate at which it lends to financial institutions. This interest rate then affects the whole range of interest rates set by commercial banks and other institutions for their own savers and borrowers. It also tends to affect the price of financial assets, such as bonds and shares, and the exchange rate, which affect consumer and business demand in a variety of ways. Lowering or raising interest rates affects spending in the economy.

The level of interest rates affects the economy. Higher interest rates tend to slow economic activity; lower interest rates stimulate economic activity. Either way, interest rates influence the sales environment. In the consumer sector, few homes or cars will be purchased when interest rates rise. Furthermore, interest rate costs are a significant factor for many businesses, particularly for companies with high debt loads or who have to finance high inventory levels. This interest cost has a direct impact on corporate profits. The bottom line is that higher interest rates are bearish for the financial markets, while lower interest rates are bullish.