CA: Ivey Purchasing Managers' Index


Wed May 06 09:00:00 CDT 2015

Actual Previous
Index Level 55.7 56.0

Highlights
The unadjusted Ivey PMI fell 0.3 points to 55.7 in April, its first decline in three months. However, seasonal factors are quite strongly negative at the start of the second quarter and adjusted for these the headline index climbed more than 10 points to 58.2, well above the 50 growth threshold and its highest reading since September 2014.

Even so, amongst the seasonally adjusted results a 5.2 point increase was only enough to put the employment sub-index at 50.3, ostensibly implying an essentially flat payroll in Friday's April labour force survey. Elsewhere, supplier deliveries (46.2 percent) again slowed but slightly less rapidly than in March and inventories (53.2 percent) accumulated less aggressively. Prices (57.8 percent) maintained their longstanding uptrend but also posted their smallest gain so far this year.

Overall today's mixed results are unlikely to have any immediate implications for BoC policy. The economy looks to have picked up some steam at the start of the second quarter but this was anticipated in the central bank's latest MPR. Any sustained acceleration in growth would need confirmation in the May and June data if it is to have any real impact on BoC thinking.

Definition
The Ivey Purchasing Managers Index measures month to month changes in dollars of purchases as indicated by a panel of purchasing managers from across Canada. The 175 participants in this survey have been carefully selected geographically and by sector of activity to match the Canadian economy as a whole. The index includes both the public and private sectors. Index panel members indicate whether their organizations activity is higher than the same as or lower than the previous month across the following five categories - purchases, employment, inventories, supplier deliveries and prices. The Ivey Purchasing Managers Index is sponsored by the Richard Ivey School of Business and the Purchasing Management Association of Canada.

Description
The Ivey PMI is provided in two formats -- unadjusted and seasonally adjusted. The index shows responses to one question: "Were your purchases last month in dollars higher, the same, or lower than the previous month?" A figure above 50 shows an increase while below 50 shows a decrease.

The index measures the month to month variation in economic activity as indicated by a panel of purchasing managers. The index uses end of the month data and it covers all sections of Canada's economy. The PMI includes both the public and private sectors and is based on month end data Ivey PMI panel members indicate whether their organizations activity is higher than, the same as, or lower than the previous month across the following five categories: purchases, employment, inventories, supplier deliveries and prices.