DE: ZEW Survey

Tue Apr 21 04:00:00 CDT 2015

Consensus Actual Previous
Current Conditions 56.3 70.2 55.1
Bus. Expectations 56.0 53.3 54.8

Germany's benchmark investor sentiment index fell 1.5 points to 53.3 in April, well below expectations and the first decline since October 2014. The current conditions index, however, posted a sharp rise, jumping 15.1 points to 70.2. This is its sixth consecutive monthly gain and puts the index at its highest level since July 2011.

Today's findings suggest that the increasing risk of a Greek default is not seen as a major threat. Rather, analysts seem to be concentrating upon the potential boost to economic growth to be expected from the combination of lower oil prices, weaker exchange rate and QE.

The monthly survey, conducted by the Mannheim-based Center for European Economic Research (ZEW), asks German financial experts for their opinions on current economic conditions and the economic outlook for Germany as well as other major industrial economies.

The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment is calculated from the results of the ZEW Financial Market Survey. The ZEW is followed closely as a precursor and predictor of the Ifo Sentiment Survey and as such is followed closely by market participants. The data are available the second week of the month for the preceding month. The survey provides a measure of analysts' view of current economic conditions as well as a gauge of expectations about the coming six months. The latter measure tends to have the larger market impact and reflects the difference between the share of analysts that are optimistic and the share of analysts that are pessimistic. About 350 financial experts take part in the survey.