US: Gallup US ECI

Tue Apr 07 07:30:00 CDT 2015

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Gallup's U.S. Economic Confidence Index registered its first negative monthly score of 2015 in March, slipping to minus 2. This is down from plus 1 in February and plus 3 in January.

The monthly index emerged from negative territory in January of this year after seven years of scores well below zero. February's average barely remained in the black, at plus 1, indicating the public continues to hold a roughly even mix of positive and negative views about the economy.

In Gallup Daily tracking throughout March, an average of 27 percent of Americans said the economy was "excellent" or "good," while 27 percent said it was "poor." The resulting "0" current conditions score is the same as in February. Meanwhile, the economic outlook sank to minus 3 in March from plus 2 in February, based on 46 percent of Americans saying the economy is "getting better" and 49 percent "getting worse."

Prior to February's reading, the Gallup Economic Confidence Index had seen six consecutive months of increases in its monthly figure, so the slight declines in each of the past two months clearly indicate a shift in consumers' mindsets, according to Gallup

Gallup's Economic Confidence Index is a composite of two questions that Gallup asks daily of a nationally representative sample of 500 adults, aged 18 and older, and reports weekly based on approximately 3,500 interviews. One question asks Americans to evaluate current economic conditions; the other measures their perceptions of whether the economy is getting better or getting worse. The two questions have equal weight in the index, and are reported without revisions or seasonal adjustments. They can also be analyzed separately, providing insight into changes in the overall index. The survey is conducted with respondents contacted on landlines and cellphones

In today's fast-moving, information-loaded environment, consumer attitudes can, and often do, change multiple times between the beginning and the middle or end of a month, and the Gallup index keeps up with these fluctuations. Followers of the metric therefore develop a keen understanding of the degree to which various economic and political events -- including monthly BLS jobs reports, major changes in the stock market, and significant congressional budget actions -- affect consumer attitudes.

Investors are highly sensitive to consumers' mindset as a potential leading indicator of consumer spending behavior. The Gallup index provides a timely reading of consumer attitudes, facilitating precise evaluations of consumers' mood and the drivers of consumer attitudes. The index gives investors a valuable tool to help predict what the other indexes will report each month, which in turn can help investors anticipate any major stock market reactions.

Econoday reports monthly data. Gallup reports results of the ECI on on a daily, weekly, monthly and quarterly basis.

The Gallup Economic Confidence Index has a possible maximum of plus 100 (reached if all Americans rate current economic conditions as excellent or good, and all Americans say the economy is getting better) and a possible minimum of minus 100 (reached if all rate the current economy as poor, and say the economy is getting worse). The zero midpoint indicates either neutral or mixed attitudes about the economy. Gallup has asked the component questions periodically since 1992, monthly since October 2000, and daily since January 2008. Since 1992, the index has ranged from a high of plus 56 in January 2000, coincident with a period of robust U.S. economic performance and a balanced federal budget, to a low of minus 65 in October 2008, during the global financial crisis.