The unadjusted Ivey PMI rose more than 8 points to 50.8 in February, its first increase since September and its first print above the 50 growth threshold since October. Adjusted for seasonal factors the index followed successive falls in December and January with a more modest 4.3 point rise to 49.7.
Amongst the survey's adjusted results, the sub-index for employment weighed in at 47.3, down from 50.0 last time and on paper at least, indicative or a soft employment labour force report next week. Inventories (47.4) were unwound further but at a slightly reduced pace than at the start of the year (46.4) and supplier delivery times (47.3) slowed at much the same rate as in January (47.0). Lastly, prices (63.2) remained surprisingly robust, albeit increasing less quickly than in the previous month (66.7).
Overall the February results suggest that the Canadian economy did little more than stagnate in mid-quarter. If correct, this should help to keep the BoC in generally dovish mood.
The Ivey Purchasing Managers Index measures month to month changes in dollars of purchases as indicated by a panel of purchasing managers from across Canada. The 175 participants in this survey have been carefully selected geographically and by sector of activity to match the Canadian economy as a whole. The index includes both the public and private sectors. Index panel members indicate whether their organizations activity is higher than the same as or lower than the previous month across the following five categories - purchases, employment, inventories, supplier deliveries and prices. The Ivey Purchasing Managers Index is sponsored by the Richard Ivey School of Business and the Purchasing Management Association of Canada.
The Ivey PMI is provided in two formats -- unadjusted and seasonally adjusted. The index shows responses to one question: "Were your purchases last month in dollars higher, the same, or lower than the previous month?" A figure above 50 shows an increase while below 50 shows a decrease.
The index measures the month to month variation in economic activity as indicated by a panel of purchasing managers. The index uses end of the month data and it covers all sections of Canada's economy. The PMI includes both the public and private sectors and is based on month end data Ivey PMI panel members indicate whether their organizations activity is higher than, the same as, or lower than the previous month across the following five categories: purchases, employment, inventories, supplier deliveries and prices.
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