NZ: RBNZ Announcement

Wed Jan 28 14:00:00 CST 2015

Consensus Actual Previous
change 0bp 0bp 0bp
Level 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%

As expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left its Official Cash Rate unchanged at 3.5 percent where it has been since July 2014. The Bank said that "the current circumstances, we expect to keep the OCR on hold for some time." Future interest rate adjustments, either up or down, will be data dependent.

In his statement, RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler once again pointed to the strength of the New Zealand dollar. Noting that it has eased recently, he said that the Bank believes that the exchange rate "remains unjustified in terms of current economic conditions, particularly export prices, and unsustainable in terms of New Zealand's long-term economic fundamentals. We expect to see a further significant depreciation."

Wheeler said that the high exchange rate, low global inflation and falling oil prices are causing traded goods inflation to be very weak. "Non-tradables inflation remains moderate, despite buoyant domestic demand and an improving labour market. Headline annual inflation is expected to be below the target band through 2015, and could become negative for a period before moving back towards 2 percent, albeit more gradually than previously anticipated."

Regarding the economy, the statement said that "annual economic growth in New Zealand is above 3 percent, supported by rising construction activity and household incomes. The housing market is showing signs of picking up, particularly in Auckland. However, fiscal consolidation, the reduced dairy payout, the risk of drought, and the high exchange rate will weigh on growth."

The Governor expects trading partner growth to be similar to 2014 in 2015. Divergences continue among regions, with growth in China, Japan and the euro area easing in recent quarters, while growth in the U.S. has remained robust.

He expects that the drop in world oil prices since June 2014 which will boost spending power in oil importing economies but reduce incomes for oil exporters. The oil price decline, together with uncertainties around the transition of U.S. monetary policy, has led to an increase in financial market volatility. Lower oil prices are expected to have a significant impact on prices and activity in New Zealand. The most direct and immediate effects are through fuel prices, with the price of regular petrol falling from a national average of $2.23 in mid-2014 to $1.73 currently. This will increase households' purchasing power and lower the cost of doing business.

Eight times a year, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets and decides whether to change or maintain New Zealand's Official Cash Rate. The RBNZ is known for its clarity regarding monetary policy intentions, thus the result is usually foreseen in advance. The decision aligns with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's monetary policy to spur or slow economic growth or affect the exchange rate.

The RBNZ maintains an inflationary target range of 1 percent to 3 percent and will change rates to keep it within such a range, making rate decisions fairly predictable. Rate changes are significant nonetheless, affecting interest rates in consumer loans, mortgages, and bond rates. Increases or even expectations for rate increases tend to cause the New Zealand Dollar to appreciate, while rate decreases cause the currency to depreciate.

The RBNZ determines interest rate policy at it policy meetings. These meetings occur roughly every six weeks and are one of the most influential events for the markets. Market participants speculate about the possibility of an interest rate change. However, since the Bank is known for its clarity in setting policy, the result is usually built into the markets in advance. The level of interest rates affects the economy. Higher interest rates tend to slow economic activity; lower interest rates stimulate economic activity. Either way, interest rates influence the sales environment. In the consumer sector, few homes or cars will be purchased when interest rates rise. Furthermore, interest rate costs are a significant factor for many businesses, particularly for companies with high debt loads or who have to finance high inventory levels. This interest cost has a direct impact on corporate profits. The bottom line is that higher interest rates are bearish for the financial markets, while lower interest rates are bullish.

Eight times a year.