The unadjusted Ivey PMI fell from 49.2 in November to 46.7 in December, its weakest reading of 2014. However, seasonal factors are negative at year-end and adjusted for these the headline index dipped just 1.5 points to 55.4, comfortably above the 50 expansion threshold.
Within the adjusted findings employment (51.8) showed a small rise but less marked than in mid-quarter (although this was not a good leading indicator of the November payroll). Supplier delivery times (54.2) were more rapid than last time while inventories (41.7) declined for the first time in four months. Prices (54.8) accelerated mildly despite tumbling energy costs.
Overall today's results suggest that the Canadian economy rounded off a reasonably respectable 2014 on an equally moderate footing. If borne out in the official data, the PMI should further reinforce the BoC's dovish policy stance.
The Ivey Purchasing Managers Index measures month to month changes in dollars of purchases as indicated by a panel of purchasing managers from across Canada. The 175 participants in this survey have been carefully selected geographically and by sector of activity to match the Canadian economy as a whole. The index includes both the public and private sectors. Index panel members indicate whether their organizations activity is higher than the same as or lower than the previous month across the following five categories - purchases, employment, inventories, supplier deliveries and prices. The Ivey Purchasing Managers Index is sponsored by the Richard Ivey School of Business and the Purchasing Management Association of Canada.
The Ivey PMI is provided in two formats -- unadjusted and seasonally adjusted. The index shows responses to one question: "Were your purchases last month in dollars higher, the same, or lower than the previous month?" A figure above 50 shows an increase while below 50 shows a decrease.
The index measures the month to month variation in economic activity as indicated by a panel of purchasing managers. The index uses end of the month data and it covers all sections of Canada's economy. The PMI includes both the public and private sectors and is based on month end data Ivey PMI panel members indicate whether their organizations activity is higher than, the same as, or lower than the previous month across the following five categories: purchases, employment, inventories, supplier deliveries and prices.
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