Market Commentary
Pre-Opening Soy Complex Market Report

The daily commentaries provide a recap of each commodity's traded price activity, an analysis of the factors that influenced price activity, a recap of any reports released that day, and a look ahead at the next day's schedule. CME Group provides market commentaries for corn, wheat, soybeans, gold and silver.

The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.

Pre-Opening Soy Complex Market Report for 5/16/2008

July soybeans traded 15 1/4 cents higher overnight. Malaysian palm oil retreated again overnight with prices down about 1/2% at midday. The dollar was lower again overnight and crude oil was higher.

The market opened lower yesterday and continued to break very sharply through most of the session. Prices recovered somewhat into the close, although soybeans, meal and oil all closed substantially lower. Weather was a major factor in the soybean market yesterday as traders indicated concern that improving weather in the Midwest would generate higher yields for soybeans even though the faster planting progress in corn probably means fewer acres for soybeans than previously thought. Private forecasters are now looking for a reduction in soybean acreage of 1 million acres or more compared to the latest USDA estimate. Farm leaders in Argentina have decided to continue their strike until May 21, and they have requested a meeting with the President of Argentina to discuss export taxes. The strike had originally been scheduled to end yesterday, May 15th. Sources in Argentina said that when processors and feed mixers were surveyed earlier this week they had only enough supplies to maintain operations for one more week. This week's export sales showed net soybean sales at 201,400 tonnes in old crop and only 300 tonnes in new crop. Sales of just 35,800 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA old crop projection. Total sales to date stand at 98.0% of the projected total compared to a 5-year average of 95.0%. Net meal sales were 115,600 tonnes in old crop and 1,200 tonnes in meal. Sales of 94,700 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA projection. Net oil sales were 10,800 tonnes in old crop and zero in new crop. Sales of 16,200 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA projection. Total sales to date stand at 74.4% compared to a 5-year average of 54.6%.

Moderate to heavy rains fell over the past 24-36 hours in east Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, central Missouri and central and southern Illinois with light to moderate amounts in the southern Plains and mostly light amounts in the southern and eastern Midwest. Most growing areas for all crops were fairly dry in the late overnight period. The forecast remains somewhat dry into the weekend, but the big news is that the cool temperatures that had been forecast for most of the Midwest seem to be retreating into the upper and eastern Midwest and forecasters are now calling for above normal temperatures in all growing areas after May 21 with highest temperatures centered just to the south and west of Chicago. Exporters reported a sale of 126,000 tonnes of soybeans to China yesterday. No major soybean tenders are scheduled at this time.

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