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The daily commentaries provide a recap of each commodity's traded price activity, an analysis of the factors that influenced price activity, a recap of any reports released that day, and a look ahead at the next day's schedule. CME Group provides market commentaries for corn, wheat, soybeans, gold and silver.
The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
December corn was down 1 cent late in the overnight session. Outside markets were narrowly mixed overnight.
Weather is dry and warming up across much of the Midwest as we end the week, and the dry part of the forecast is expected to last in most areas through the end of next week. If anything, the forecasts are still squeezing out more of the scattered rain that was originally indicated for next week in the NW and western Corn Belt and in the northern Delta and mid south.
Farmers are still thought to be concentrating on harvesting soybeans and letting corn dry out in the fields. However, as some wrap up soybeans and finish planting wheat, they are likely to start moving into corn fields in a fairly aggressive manner, even if moisture content is higher than they would like. The extreme lateness of this year's crop has pushed this 'drying in the fields' option to a point where winter is truly just around the corner. One analyst noted that many farmers may prefer the expense and safety of harvest their corn and drying it commercially while the window of favorable weather stays open.
Export sales were near the high end of trade expectations yesterday which pushed cumulative corn for the season to just 32.7% of the USDA forecast for 2009/2010. Total sales have been falling farther and farther behind the 5-year average in recent weeks. That average now stands at 38.0%. Corn export sales need to average 838,000 tonnes each week to reach the USDA forecast. This may cause a lower export forecast by the USDA in next week's supply demand update.
Many traders look for a reduction in the production forecast next week of near 25 million bushels from 13.018 billion bushels. Test weights may end up pulling the forecast down significantly but this will not be known until next year in stocks reports. It will also be a difficult estimate for the USDA with so much of the crop unharvested as of November 1st. In addition, freeze damage is difficult to estimate with the crop unharvested so some traders see production down by more than 300 million bushels.
